07/17/2014 - France: not yet out of the woods (Investment Research)
The twin crisis seems not to have materially impacted the medium-term outlook for France.
But this is no reason to cheer.
Key points
France has weathered the crisis better than most of its peers. But the recovery remains sluggish
and feels nearly as painful as the recession.
A key impediment to growth is the poor shape of the corporate sector. Dynamic input prices
and high taxation are weighing on profitability and fuelling a vicious cycle of competitiveness.
Another impediment is labour market inefficiencies. Even if the crisis does not have long-lasting consequences, we estimate the structural unemployment rate at 9%.
We expect potential growth for the medium term of around 1.5%, up slightly from the last decade.
The output gap stands around 2%, and when it closes will provide modest support as from 2015.
Structural reforms aside, economic policy requires clear choices.
Having a model for France's integration into globalisation would help replace'managing
the decline' by'making way for the future'.
pdf color format (506 Kb)
Various documents have been updated and posted online:
NEWS
- "Mon AXA" app: all services of AXA France in your pocket
(http://www.axa.com/en/news/2014/mon-axa-all-services-in-your-pocket.aspx)
OP-ED
- Applied risk research on risks is "fundamental" for insurers
(http://www.axa.com/en/newsstand/op-ed/)
MARKETS AND STRATEGY
- France: not yet out of the woods - Investment Research
(http://www.axa.com/en/investor/stockmarket/marketsandstrategy/)
You can change your subscription at any time via the "Subscribe" section
on the www.axa.com website, accessible at the following address:
http://www.axa.com/en/subscription.aspx
The twin crisis seems not to have materially impacted the medium-term outlook for France.
But this is no reason to cheer.
Key points
France has weathered the crisis better than most of its peers. But the recovery remains sluggish
and feels nearly as painful as the recession.
A key impediment to growth is the poor shape of the corporate sector. Dynamic input prices
and high taxation are weighing on profitability and fuelling a vicious cycle of competitiveness.
Another impediment is labour market inefficiencies. Even if the crisis does not have long-lasting consequences, we estimate the structural unemployment rate at 9%.
We expect potential growth for the medium term of around 1.5%, up slightly from the last decade.
The output gap stands around 2%, and when it closes will provide modest support as from 2015.
Structural reforms aside, economic policy requires clear choices.
Having a model for France's integration into globalisation would help replace'managing
the decline' by'making way for the future'.
pdf color format (506 Kb)
Various documents have been updated and posted online:
NEWS
- "Mon AXA" app: all services of AXA France in your pocket
(http://www.axa.com/en/news/2014/mon-axa-all-services-in-your-pocket.aspx)
OP-ED
- Applied risk research on risks is "fundamental" for insurers
(http://www.axa.com/en/newsstand/op-ed/)
MARKETS AND STRATEGY
- France: not yet out of the woods - Investment Research
(http://www.axa.com/en/investor/stockmarket/marketsandstrategy/)
You can change your subscription at any time via the "Subscribe" section
on the www.axa.com website, accessible at the following address:
http://www.axa.com/en/subscription.aspx
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| Capture d'écran: http://www.axa.com/en/investor/stockmarket/marketsandstrategy/ |
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